January 12, 2009
least biased election polls?
Posted by: admin : Category: Political Election Polls
I’m trying to find the least biased, most accurate prediction maps up through the election
who has the most accurate polls? yahoo’s political dashboard is nice - but other polls (likely not counting leaning states) seem very different
Rassmussin does a pretty good job. If you go to realclearpolitics.com they will give you all the polls and an average of the results.
You have to realize that many of the polls (CNN, Times, Heritage Foundation) will create questions to get the answers that best suit the desired results or they will overy survey one group over another.
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January 12th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
fivethirtyeight.com analyzes all the polls and weights them according to recency, sample size, and historical accuracy. Polls that have shown themselves to be accurate in the past are given greater weight.
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January 12th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
gallup
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January 12th, 2009 at 8:07 pm
http://www.intrade.com
Prediction markets are more accurate than polls. People lie to pollsters, but when money is on the line, people can’t afford to be dishonest.
Obama currently has an 84.4% of winning.
References :
January 12th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
Rassmussin does a pretty good job. If you go to realclearpolitics.com they will give you all the polls and an average of the results.
You have to realize that many of the polls (CNN, Times, Heritage Foundation) will create questions to get the answers that best suit the desired results or they will overy survey one group over another.
References :